There are a few movies I still haven't reviewed, including two Best Picture nominees that I loved, so I will try to get this done before the show starts!
If I had to pick, LIFE OF PI (reviewed here) is my runaway favorite film of the year, and probably many years, as it is such a unique accomplishment. AMOUR (reviewed here) is also excellent, but too dark for the Oscar.
ARGO (reviewed here) will probably win, it has the momentum, and with Ben Affleck strangely missing from the directing nominees, it seems like voters will chose the film instead. Also, it's a film about a film saving the country from war, an excuse for the academy to feel good about itself. As much as I enjoyed it as a good popcorn movie, all four of the aforementioned films were far better.
I was not overwhelmed by DJANGO (reviewed here). LINCOLN (reviewed here) was solid old-fashioned moviemaking, but not worth a BP Oscar (although it may win some tech awards).
I hated LES MIZ (reviewed here) and ZERO DARK THIRTY (reviewed here). I know I'm in the minority on the last one, but it is really crappy moviemaking, regardless of the political context.
I won't hold my breath, but I would love to see PI win, or even SILVER LININGS or BEASTS, but I think it will be ARGO.